Hydro-strategy: A new approach to solving water crises
Filippo Verre - March 6, 2023
A water crisis is perhaps the most traumatic event that a community of individuals living in a given territory can face. This is because water – or rather the lack of water – has a devastating impact not only on the personal sphere, but above all on almost all productive sectors related to the community which, despite itself, finds itself struggling with water supply difficulties. In fact, in addition to being indispensable for our daily activities – namely cooking, drinking and washing – the so-called “blue gold” is present at various levels in many production processes that are often not associated with the use of water resources. In this regard, consider for example the production of nuclear energy. There are reactors called “light water” (Light Water Reactors) that are moderated and cooled with the aid of water. Initially designed to be used in naval propulsion due to their small size and the absence of problems with the movement of the fluid in the pressurized container during navigation, these reactors use many H2O molecules in the refrigeration phase. Again, consider how crucial the use of water resources is in hospitals, dental clinics, hotels, restaurants, industrial production and agriculture.
Fig. 1: Funzionamento tecnico e distribuzione energetica dell’elettricità prodotta da un Light Water Reactors
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light-water_reactor
According to a study published by the World Water Development Report[1], more than half of the world's workforce is employed in eight sectors dependent on water and natural resources: agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, resource-intensive manufacturing, waste recycling, construction and transport. According to the study, more than 1.4 billion jobs are highly dependent on water, equal to 42% of the total global workforce. It is also estimated that 1.2 billion jobs, equal to 36%, have a medium level of dependence on water. In practice, 78% of the jobs in which the global workforce is employed depend on water. This means, in essence, that in a situation of water crisis, water shortages and obstacles to access to the resource could severely limit not only daily activity but the economic viability of an entire community.
Fig. 2: Un lavoratore alle prese con la gestione di un flusso idrico
https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2017/article/water-utility-jobs.htm
Difficulty in water supply. The main macro-causes
The data therefore show us how interconnected the relationship between production, economic growth and water supply is. There are numerous factors that today – and presumably also in the future – will contribute to making this supply increasingly problematic. First of all, consider the constant increase in terrestrial temperatures. In the last century, global warming (Global Warming, GW) and climate change (Climate Change, CG)[2], have strongly influenced the volume of precipitation, the increase in cases of drought at a global level and the progressive extension of the worrying phenomenon linked to desertification[3].
In addition, consider the significant increase in terrestrial inhabitants. According to data provided by YouTrend, a popular statistics site, the world population today is equal to eight billion people[4]. It took tens of thousands of years to reach one billion people and "only" two hundred years to go from 1 to 8 billion. In essence, therefore, over the last 200 years the world population has increased by 800%. Astonishing numbers that certify the progress of the human species in many fields, above all health. Predictably, the massive growth in the number of people from now to the next decades will lead to numerous problems related to water stress. The latter, quite presumably, will do nothing but increase in the future, until it affects almost all nations that experience significant population growth. As a consequence of this, from a condition of stress related to water supply we will very likely pass to a condition of water deficit, or to a real lack of resource that will cause enormous inconvenience to many millions of individuals[5].
Fig. 3: Campo agricolo affetto da un preoccupante caso di deficit idrico
https://magazine.windtre.it/news-ecologia-sostenibilita/litalia-e-deficit-idrico
Finally, we must take into consideration the progressive mass urbanization that will characterize entire areas of our planet. Already today there are situations in which population density puts a strain on the hydro-environmental stability of many territories. Consider, for example, the numerous Indian or sub-Saharan metropolises, where many millions of individuals reside in a few dozen square kilometers in often precarious conditions[6]. These enormous urban agglomerations, destined to multiply in the future especially in Asia and Africa, put a strain on the water supply both for primary/personal needs and for production. It is certainly no coincidence, in this regard, that precisely in two African and Indian metropolises – Cape Town 2018 and Chennai 2019 – two of the most severe water crises in modern history have recently occurred.
Hydro-strategy. A possible solution?
The three macro-factors mentioned above – rising temperatures, exponential population growth and progressive mass urbanization – will undoubtedly contribute to a constant erosion of global water resources. While avoiding an alarmist view of the current situation, one cannot help but notice how worrying cases of tension are already occurring between states engaged in bitter disputes over water grabbing. There are numerous hotbeds of conflict: think, for example, of the tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia following the construction of the GERD (Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) dam wanted by Addis Ababa[1], the role of hydro power played by Turkey in the Middle East precisely by virtue of the abundance of water on which Ankara can count or the Chinese aggressiveness in Asia due to the control exercised by Beijing over Tibet, an immense deposit of “blue gold”. Already now, therefore, water is the cause of strong conflicts between various players on the international scene. The consequences of the so-called water conflicts – water wars – contribute to increasing regional insecurity in many parts of the world and to greatly increasing the number of climate migrants.
The main reason for this situation lies in the eminently disinterested approach with which States, international organizations and policy makers deal with the issue of water supply. Access to water and the protection of water resources are rarely placed at the center of agendas and debates, and if this occurs it is done in a merely accessory way. The fight against climate change, the reduction of CO2, the protection of the oceans, the reduction of pollution and other environmental issues always seem to be one step ahead of the issue that should concern the human race the most: the protection of water, the primary resource par excellence. Water appears to be the “daughter of a lesser god”, a necessary good but too often taken for granted, not infinite and a harbinger of very serious conflicts, present and future. With this awareness, therefore, it is appropriate to dedicate the right attention to water, placing it at the center of the human and political dynamics that regulate the relationships between States. In light of this, it is more urgent than ever to adopt an academic-scientific approach that puts water at the center of the debate as a subject and not as an accessory or means to achieve a specific end. It is time, therefore, to develop new disciplines that study water and its socio-political, economic and environmental interactions from a strategic point of view. In a word: hydro-strategy.
This new subject and its ramifications on the political, economic and financial sectors will be extremely relevant in the coming years. The study of hydro-strategy requires a multi-scale analysis, which employs different disciplines: economics, finance, sociology, international law, geopolitics, history of international relations and public health. All these elements combined must be taken into serious consideration to support future generations in addressing issues related to water and water conflicts. New challenges are looming on the horizon: as mentioned, tensions between states for the control of resources are already a dangerous reality in several parts of the world, as are the nationalist strategies implemented by various countries aimed at the acquisition of water resources to the detriment of neighboring peoples. Hydro-strategy is gradually emerging, therefore, as an indispensable scientific discipline, finding its space driven by the growing economic and environmental costs of developing new energy supplies, by the intensification of conflicts between new and old actors and by the growing importance of water quality for basic human needs.
Hydro-strategy applied to the study of Forestry Sciences. Possible points of intersection
From an environmental point of view, hydro-strategy has very evident implications, especially if applied to the study of Forestry Sciences. The analysis of the interactions between water and forests, which have always represented an inseparable binomial, could be very useful in the near future characterized by stress and water deficit. In an article published in 2009 entitled How Forests Attract Rain: An Examination of a New Hypothesis, the authors Douglas Sheil and Daniel Murdiyarso theorized how the presence of forests is propaedeutic to the volume of precipitation in a given territory. According to the two authors, there is a direct correlation between the amount of rain that falls on a region and the number of trees that reside there. Reversing the traditional concept that predicts the presence of lush forests due to heavy rainfall, Sheil and Murdiyarso argue that, on the contrary, rain falls precisely because of the large number of trees present in a given area. This is because, according to scholars, a massive concentration of vegetation would favor the aggregation of humidity and, consequently, the formation of clouds. In their view, if the forest is located near the coast, the trees act as an attractive pole for marine and ocean currents; if, instead, the forests are located more internally, there would be an accumulation of moist atmosphere (humid atmosphere) that would facilitate the increase in rainfall.
The article by Sheil and Murdiyarso contains elements of undoubted innovation in the approach to the study of water and forests. For a long time it was believed that in certain areas of the world – Amazon, Borneo, Congo etc. – heavy rainfall caused the lush growth of vegetation. In reality, the paradigm proposed by the two scholars foresees that it is the trees that attract the rain and not vice versa. It should be noted, for the sake of truth, that by the authors' own admission the mechanism that regulates the relationship between precipitation and vegetative growth is not very clear despite decades of careful research: “Despite considerable research, the mechanisms determining global climate remain poorly understood”[7]. Nonetheless, the theories proposed by Sheil and Murdiyarso allow us to adopt a new approach to various environmental issues including, for example, desertification. This phenomenon, which is unfortunately increasingly growing not only in remote areas of the planet but also in some Italian regions, can be stopped in two main ways:
1) Promote the concentration of atmospheric humidity that limits the erosion of forests and vegetation as much as possible.
2) Plant numerous trees that counteract the progressive loss of forests.
With the approach theorized by the two aforementioned scholars, tree planting would have the dual effect of limiting the surface area of land subjected to deforestation and increasing the possibility of rainfall. In this regard, consider the great beneficial effects that the Great Green Wall will have in Africa. This is a pioneering initiative conducted in the context of the fight against the effects induced by global climate change and desertification. Hundreds of millions of trees will be planted over the next few years in the southern reaches of the Sahara desert to limit the worrying erosion of fertile land that has occurred in recent decades. With the increase in the number of trees, it is hoped to limit the worrying cases of drought through greater rainfall. It would essentially be a sort of "induction of rainfall" through the extension of the forested surface area located in the African Sahel.
Fig. 4: Localizzazione geografica della Great Green Wall
https://www.exploring-africa.com/blog/1131/1-miliardo-di-dollari-da-bezos-il-great-green-wall
Another interesting aspect that deserves to be explored in the relationship between water and Forest Sciences concerns the interaction between hydraulic engineering (dams, in particular) and the forest environment. The construction of dams and hydroelectric power plants plays a very important role in the production of hydropower. The kinetic force of water, if wisely exploited, can guarantee the production of eco-sustainable and potentially infinite electricity. However, dams – especially if large – often bring about irreversible changes to entire regions and ecosystems. When the course of a river is diverted or artificially altered, the consequences are not entirely predictable, although very accurate studies are carried out today. What are the impacts of the massive production of hydroelectric energy on a forested area? If the forest affected by the construction of the dam is subject to the jurisdiction of different States, what are the rules to be respected? If the watercourse on which a hydroelectric power plant is built is cross-border, how are the relationships between the governments involved managed? To answer these questions, often not easy to interpret, it is appropriate to rely on hydro-strategy, a discipline that bases its raison d'être, among others, in the evaluation of strategic impacts related to water issues.
Conclusion
Water crises will represent the main socio-political threats for many communities in the future. In light of the recent past, even for what concerns our country, it is not a question of "if" but of "when" we will have to deal with the next water supply crisis. The strategies to limit such disastrous events are various, mainly focused on prevention and planning. Without a doubt, the role played by forests in containing freshwater crises is crucial. More trees essentially means a greater volume of precipitation and therefore more water available to deal with any and very plausible cases of water deficit.
In light of what awaits us, it would be appropriate to increase the interaction between hydro-strategy and Forest Sciences both from an academic/scientific and an empirical point of view. The two subjects, as mentioned above, go hand in hand in many ways and could be used to prevent many crises in the future. As demonstrated in the article by Sheil and Murdiyarso, a thriving and healthy forest represents a natural pole of attraction for atmospheric humidity. Therefore, in addition to counteracting the proliferation of carbon emissions harmful to the atmosphere, trees would have a very important function in promoting the aggregation of clouds. This second aspect should not be underestimated, especially in the current climate situation in which cases of low rainfall often occur at various latitudes of the planet.
A greater understanding of hydro-strategy applied to Forest Sciences can bring significant benefits in the fight against water crises. Since new challenges are looming on the horizon, new theoretical and practical approaches must be adopted. The Italian situation, in this regard, represents a sadly useful case study. Until a few years ago, the Bel Paese had not experienced particular moments of drought or water stress. In the last decade, however, Italy has already experienced three medium-high water crises. The environmental scenario is constantly changing. It is therefore more evident than ever to consider different solutions to deal with problems of different nature.
Riferimenti Bibliografici
Bhagwat S., 2009, Biodiversity and Climate Change, in “American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)”.
Biswas A. K et al., 2019, Water crisis and water wars: myths and realities, in “International Journal of Water Resources Development”, Vol. 35 Issue 5, 2019, pp. 727-731.
Boelens R., 2021, Environmental justice movements in globalizing networks: a critical discussion on social resistance against large dams, in “The Journal of Peasant Studies”, Issue 5 Vol. 48, pp. 1008-1032.
Natali R., 2022, GERD: “La grande diga della rinascita etiope”, in "AB AQUA - think tank di idro-strategia".
Schetke S. et al., 2012, Towards sustainable settlement growth: A new multi-criteria assessment for implementing environmental targets into strategic urban planning, in “Environmental Impact Assessment Review”, 2012, Vol. 32, pp. 195-210.
Sheil D. & Murdiyarso D., 2009, How Forests Attract Rain: An Examination of a New Hypothesis, in “BioScience”, Vo. 59, pp. 341-347.
Verre F., 2021, La crisi idrica di Città del Capo (2018): una lezione da non dimenticare, in "AB AQUA - think tank di idro-strategia".
Verre F., 2022, La crisi idrica di Chennai (2019). Un’emergenza nazionale indiana, in "AB AQUA - think tank di idro-strategia".
Verre F., 2022, La crisi idrica italiana: cause, scenari, soluzioni, in "AB AQUA - think tank di idro-strategia".
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[1] Acqua: rapporto Onu, 3 lavori su 4 dipendono dalla risorsa idrica, in “AdnKronos”, 22 marzo 2016.
[2] Per quanto spesso confusi o utilizzati come sinonimi, il surriscaldamento globale ed il cambiamento climatico sono due concetti profondamente diversi. Infatti, mentre la prima teoria scientifica ritiene che le temperature medie del nostro pianeta continuino gradualmente e costantemente ad aumentare direttamente a causa dell’inquinamento atmosferico, la seconda teoria non ammette un aumento graduale e costante delle temperature, bensì una loro modifica non lineare parzialmente collegata con il fattore dell’inquinamento. Shonil Bhagwat, Biodiversity and Climate Change, in “American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)”, 2009, pp. 805-807.
[3] Rutgerd Boelens, Environmental justice movements in globalizing networks: a critical discussion on social resistance against large dams, in “The Journal of Peasant Studies”, Issue 5 Vol. 48, 2021, pp. 1008-1032.
[4] La cifra tonda di otto miliardi di persone è stata raggiunta, tra l’altro, recentemente, il 15 novembre 2022. Per maggiori dettagli sull’andamento della popolazione mondiale negli ultimi decenni si consiglia di consultare il seguente link: https://www.youtrend.it/2022/04/29/il-futuro-della-crescita-della-popolazione-mondiale/.
[5] Asit K. Biswas et al., Water crisis and water wars: myths and realities, in “International Journal of Water Resources Development”, Vol. 35 Issue 5, 2019, pp. 727-731.
[6] Per ulteriori informazioni si consiglia Sophie Schetke et al., Towards sustainable settlement growth: A new multi-criteria assessment for implementing environmental targets into strategic urban planning, in “Environmental Impact Assessment Review”, 2012, Vol. 32, pp. 195-210.
[7] Douglas Sheil & Daniel Murdiyarso, How Forests Attract Rain: An Examination of a New Hypothesis, in “BioScience”, Vol. 59, p. 341, 2009.
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