A Country Divided in Two: Kenya at the Center of the Climate Contradiction

Isabella De Baptistis - December 13, 2022

* L’immagine di copertina di questo report è stata presa dal sito Quotidiano di Sicilia (QdS), consultabile al seguente link: https://qds.it/agricoltura-sicilia-quali-sono-i-rischi-causati-dal-cambiamento-climatico/

It would seem paradoxical that a country like Kenya, rich in lakes and rivers, is at the center of two phenomena that are at opposite ends of the spectrum: drought and floods. Two events that are two sides of the same coin: they are effects, albeit opposite, of what we are now accustomed to identifying as climate change. Although Kenya has vast areas of "blue gold", it is currently in the grip of a terrible drought.

Since September 2022, much of northern Kenya has seen 30% less rainfall than expected. Drought is not a new phenomenon for the country, which has always been exposed to this type of emergency. However, since 1999 the phenomenon has doubled: every two/three years, in fact, Kenya has to deal with a serious drought. Climate change and rising temperatures have influenced the worsening of the situation. On the one hand, an increasingly frequent and persistent drought places the African state in a significantly critical situation, on the other, an unusual rise in the level of lakes threatens the conditions of human, animal and plant life in various areas.

Fig. 1: Carta dei laghi del Kenya

Lakes: an invasion sui generis

The acceleration of the increase in volume of the main lakes of Kenya was the focus of the studies conducted by geologist Simon Onywere (of Kenyatta University) between 2010 and 2013. The subject of his research was the fourth largest lake in the country, Lake Baringo. Through a comparative study of satellite images, Onywere had noticed how other lakes in Kenya had also significantly increased in volume: Lake Bogoria, Naivasha, Nakuru, Victoria and Turkana (a salt water lake). Already in those years, the rise in water levels had forced thousands of people to abandon their homes. Then, the intense rainfall that poured into Kenya in 2020 caused a rapid acceleration in the expansion of the lakes whose water reached houses, hotels and schools, transforming the areas involved into risky habitats also due to the presence of crocodiles and hippos.

Fig. 2: Persone usano una barca per evacuare il loro villaggio, dopo le inondazioni del maggio 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/17/kenya-quiet-slide-underwater-great-rift-valley-lakes-east-africa-flooding

The same fate has befallen the surface of the aforementioned Lake Turkana, a basin considered one of the cradles of humanity, which extends for 250 km in length and 60 km in width in northern Kenya. According to a government study, the volume of the lake has increased by 10% between 2010 and 2020 and this has meant that almost 800 km2 of land have been submerged by water. Lake Turkana has assimilated the Barrier volcanic complex – composed of four overlapping volcanoes that previously separated it from Lake Logipi, which it has now entirely submerged, creating a single surface of water. Similarly, Lake Baringo has incorporated the lesser-known Lake 94, while Lake Oloiden has disappeared into Lake Naivasha[1].

According to experts, the origin of this phenomenon is to be attributed to extreme rainfall, deforestation of the highlands and river basins, but also to tectonic movements, which are causing soil erosion and an increase in mud in the lakes. If these trends are not reversed, the lakes will continue to increase in surface area, generating, in addition to the submergence of cities and the threat of extinction of fauna and flora, also many climate refugees.

Fig. 3: Alberi parzialmente sommersi nel lago Baringo a Kampi ya Samaki, 20 luglio 2022 https://www.rainews.it/photogallery/2022/09/kenya-il-lago-si-espande-per-i-cambiamenti-climatici-e-i-coccodrilli-arrivano-alla-porta-di-casa-cd811190-ef7d-4a94-a3f8-68239d0b5d90.html

According to a 2021 report by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of Kenya and the United Nations Development Programme, the rising waters of Lake Baringo have already caused the displacement of over 75,000 families. Attention to the problem has always been rather limited, but the outbreak of the pandemic crisis has caused less attention to the issue.

Worthy of mention is the critical situation of the El-Molo, an ethnic group that lives mainly in the north-eastern province of Kenya, who have watched helplessly as their only source of fresh water, as well as the burial mounds of their ancestors, gradually disappear. The waters, in fact, have flooded the streets, thus isolating the inhabitants on an island in the middle of the lake. The last census in 2019 recorded just 1,100 members of the ethnic community, a "drop of water" compared to the 50 million inhabitants and more than 40 ethnic groups in the country.

Some displaced people have decided to build a makeshift camp on the opposite bank: shacks on a barren clearing, from which the world of their community seems increasingly distant. The fishing nets and baskets used for millennia, hand-woven from reeds and palm fibers, have become less effective in deeper waters. In addition to fishermen, children are among the most disadvantaged categories. Most of them are stuck at home, deprived of the opportunity to attend school because their parents cannot afford boat transportation.

The local government, the NGO World Vision (and many other organizations) are providing assistance, but resources are scarce and needs are numerous in this region also affected, in the hottest periods, by a severe drought.

The persistent fury of the drought

As happens in a sudden change of setting in a movie, from a vision of flooding it is possible to move to an arid, barren, lifeless environment, while remaining in the same region.

Unfortunately, this is not a film, but the true and current history of Kenya, whose iconographic memory brings us back to harsh and, at times, dramatic images these days: animal carcasses lying on an arid expanse (in 2022, 2.5 million animals lost their lives), children carrying barrels of water for kilometers, long lines of families waiting to receive food and water, hospitals with patients suffering from malnutrition and dehydration.

The parched lands, devoid of water resources and therefore no longer fertile, cause the death of animals and a significant humanitarian crisis: farmers and ranchers reduced to starvation, communities that become nomads to reach and occupy territories adjacent to water sources and countless people who risk death due to the consequences of prolonged lack of food and water. The areas most at risk are those of Turkana, the Galbi desert and the Suguta Valley.

Fig. 4: I danni della siccità in Kenya

For the second consecutive season, northern Kenya, where temperatures increased by 0.34% per decade from 1985 to 2015, has waited in vain for the expected rains to arrive, making it difficult to obtain food and water. Drought in Kenya has always followed a repetitive and constant cycle: every 5-10 years a period of drought could be expected and in the intervening period the soil and water sources had all the time necessary to regenerate, thus limiting the effects of the subsequent period of dryness. In recent years, however, drought has knocked on Kenya's door every two years, sometimes even every year. This alarming pace has contributed to speeding up and worsening the humanitarian situation in the country. An estimated 17% increase in the number of people suffering from food insecurity, a percentage corresponding to approximately 4 million people in need of humanitarian aid due to food and water shortages. Of concern is the data relating to child malnutrition, according to which 942,000 children are affected[2].

Adverse weather conditions have also compromised the earnings and harvests of Kenyan farmers. In addition, families have to cope with the increase in the prices of basic foodstuffs (aggravated by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine); as a result, they have also encountered a limitation in their access to these goods. Such vulnerability, which also affects human survival, has been the source of episodes of looting, conflicts over resources and banditry. The tensions and desperation, resulting from the harsh impact of the drought, are tangible in various areas of the country.

In some cases, the intensity of the drought spontaneously pushes its victims to seek any possible solution without worrying about the long-term consequences that may arise. As evidenced by the choice of Denis Musya, a young man who lives east of Nairobi. The inability to buy basic food supplies and the continued lack of rain have forced Denis to seek sustenance in the forest:

“A kilo of corn sells for about 0.83 dollars and a liter of cooking oil costs about 3.31 dollars. So in a day I should spend 4.14 dollars. But since this budget is currently impossible, I venture into the forest in search of whatever is available, be it a gazelle, a hare, a badger, an antelope or any other animal that ends up in my traps. If I don’t find any, I pass by wild fruits such as baobabs and pick some to boil and fill my stomach”[3] (Denis Musya).

Lack of water: an intervention between nature and technology

Overall, in the Sahel, there has been a drastic decrease in water sources of more than 40% over the last twenty years. In Kenya, the combination of a material scarcity of water resources and the increase in the price of supplies has been worrying: in the areas most affected by drought, families cannot get the water they need for their livelihood. The only available source of water comes from sellers on trucks or donkey carts.

The overview in Kenya documents how 23 counties are struggling with a very high increase in water prices, with the exceptional cases of Mandera and Garissa, where increases of 400% and 260% respectively have been recorded since January 2021[4]; at the same time, a large percentage of open water resources have already dried up in the areas affected by drought.

Access to water is becoming increasingly limited and seeking alternative solutions remains, therefore, essential. In Kwale County, for example, drilling of wells to reach underground water is starting. This is an operation that takes a day of work and guarantees the primary water supply, but at least 13,000 dollars are needed to start drilling. However, aquifers remain under-exploited: according to the UN, which considers this resource a potential alternative to drought, only 3% of agricultural land in these regions is equipped for irrigation and only 5% uses underground water[5].

Continuing financial interventions by the government or local and/or international bodies remains, therefore, essential to ensure access to water for populations seriously affected by drought.

Fig. 5: Lavori alle infrastrutture idriche del Kenya – Kenya Innovative Finance Facility for Water (KIFFWA)

If nature, exploited and mistreated by man, is unable to take action, then technology can come to the rescue. The construction and proper maintenance of water infrastructures can provide prevention and resolution of the problem of water insecurity. In fact, if the infrastructures present technical weaknesses, their ability to limit the risks and damages of a water crisis is put to the test, especially in contexts of severe drought. The infrastructures mentioned can include tanks, domestic gutters, as well as natural water reserves and climate-resilient works, i.e. systems capable of resisting, absorbing and recovering water from the effects induced by the climate. It is understandable how the costs related to the construction of these systems and the need for frequent maintenance, to guarantee long-term functioning, constitute real obstacles for situations like that of Kenya.

The State, committed to solving this long-standing problem, has launched short- and long-term water management plans, also investing in non-piped domestic or community infrastructure, such as tanks and gutters, which are effective in ensuring good rainwater collection capacity and reducing dependence on natural infrastructure, which is more unreliable and stressed during drought periods. This strategy is valid for families faced with water uncertainty. This method is already being applied by numerous non-profit organizations that install small-scale rainwater harvesting systems in rural areas to promote food and water security.

For long-term sustainability, the implementation of more innovative infrastructures remains recommended, accompanied by management plans and education on risk management for water sources.

A new political landscape

It is inevitable to mention the new political landscape that began in Kenya on 13 September 2022, following the election of the new President, William Samoei Ruto, on 9 August. One of his battle horses has been the fight against climate change. In fact, during his election campaign, the newly elected President committed to increasing sustainable energy and phasing out fossil fuels by 2030, in favor of a fair transition to electricity generated exclusively from solar, wind and geothermal energy.

Fig. 6: Presidente neoeletto del Kenya: William Samoei Ruto

His first term already sees the need to manage the dramatic crisis underway and lead the country out of the severe drought. On the other hand, it has also been noted by some experts that the aforementioned sustainable plan may not be sufficient given the devastating drought that is affecting the production of hydroelectric energy in Africa.

Recently, the Kenyan government – ​​among other things – obtained from the African Export-Import Bank (Afriexim) a three billion dollar loan for the implementation of a program that includes the development of water schemes based on private links and business incubators. The government has planned the construction of one hundred mini-dams, a project that will double the irrigated areas in Kenya and will have a significant impact on food production.

At COP27, Kenya appealed to the most economically advanced countries to recognize the “special needs” of the African continent, torn apart by the consequences of climate change and isolated in the resolution of the same. Of course, a reference to the situation in Kenya could not be missed:

“The Horn of Africa, including Kenya, is experiencing the worst drought in 40 years […] Kenya’s famous wildlife has not been spared. Carcasses of elephants, zebras, wildebeests and other wild animals litter our parks. We have spent three million dollars to bring them food and water.”

To discuss these issues, as Chair of the African negotiating group, Nairobi has expressed her intention to organize a “continental summit on climate action” in 2023.

Conclusions

Kenya’s difficult situation is yet another proof of the contrasting and devastating effects of climate change that not only affect the natural habitat in which we live, but also have repercussions on the primary needs of all of our lives: food supply, access to water, and stability.

The serious crisis in Kenya calls for the responsibility of community action, as well as the urgent need to include the notion of water management in national and international public policies, which is currently essential for preventing and limiting damage caused by drought or other extreme weather events. Governments, stakeholders and the international community should not limit themselves to providing more funding, but should rely more on businesses, local and external technicians to build the infrastructure and technologies needed to ensure that the population has access to and benefits from adequate, affordable and safe water for well-being and a healthy life.

In Kenya, it is possible to mention the reality of the Kenya Innovative Finance Facility for Water (KIFFWA), an investment fund active in the water sector. The various projects have an impact on an ecological, agricultural, social and technological level. The Mbooni Water Treatment and Distribution Project, for example, aims to develop water infrastructure useful for water extraction. The Commercial Water Purification and Distribution Project focuses on the function of purifying and distributing water to communities in Nakuru County. “The Advanced Water Metering, Billing and Reporting Infrastructure Initiative for the Water Sector” aims to manage nearly 30,000 water withdrawal and effluent discharge points across Kenya.

There is therefore an urgent need for government-business cooperation, not only at the national level, in a win-win policy to implement necessary infrastructure interventions: rehabilitation and construction of new dams, natural reservoirs and suitable irrigation systems and improvement of sewerage systems.

There is an urgent need for new large-scale projects and cutting-edge technologies to mitigate the consequences and better prepare for current and future challenges posed by climate change.

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[1] C. Baraka, “A drowning world: Kenya’s quiet slide underwater”, The Guardian – 17 marzo 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/17/kenya-quiet-slide-underwater-great-rift-valley-lakes-east-africa-flooding.

[2] “Kenia: las graves sequías dejan a 4,1 millones de personas sin acceso adecuado a alimentos y agua”, Caritas – 2022 https://www.caritas.org/2022/09/kenia-las-graves-sequias-dejan-a-41-millones-de-personas-sin-acceso-adecuado-a-alimentos-y-agua/?lang=es.

[3] C. Pauvarel, “Kenya: la vie des habitants du Kitui menacée par l’absance de pluies”, fr.africanews.com – 2022 https://fr.africanews.com/2022/10/06/kenya-la-vie-des-habitants-du-kitui-menacee-par-labsence-de-pluies/.

[4] “Emergenza siccità nel Corno d’Africa: in Kenya il costo dell’acqua è cresciuto fino al 400%”, greenreport.it – agosto 2022 https://greenreport.it/news/clima/emergenza-siccita-nel-corno-dafrica-in-kenya-il-costo-dellacqua-e-cresciuto-fino-al-400/.

[5] Redazione Africanews, “Kenya: les eaux soutteraines, l’alternative à la crise de l’or belu”, fr.africanews – 2022 https://fr.africanews.com/2022/03/22/kenya-les-eaux-souterraines-l-alternative-a-la-crise-de-l-or-bleu/.